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Sunday, May 25, 2008

Basketball End Game Strategy

I'm watching the NBA playoffs and what the teams are doing at the end of the games doesn't make any sense to me. I sit there and look at the time remaining and the point deficit and I am screaming at the TV for someone to start fouling to stretch out the game. After a certain point I can tell now if a team has a legitimate chance to win or not. Here are the basic rules.
Deficit - Time to start fouling
10 - - - - - - - - 2:10
8 - - - - - - - - - 1:45
6 - - - - - - - - - 1:15
4 - - - - - - - - - 0:48

Some people will say, "Oh that is too early you can play defense and shoot 3's", but realistically if you foul and get the deficit down to 2 points with a minute left that is what you need. If the scenario plays out perfectly and they miss every foul shot and your team is able to come down and score in less than 10 seconds, then your team will tie the game with a minute left. These guys are pros, just because you force them to use 24 seconds is not a guarantee they won't score. And if you give up two points with less than 5 seconds left you could have saved 20 seconds by forcing them to make 2 foul shots. I base my estimates on the leading team having the ball and being able to run at least 20 seconds off the clock during each opportunity and the team that is behind using at least 10 seconds to try and score. I believe that if you are going to foul then you should count on the opposing team making some foul shots down the stretch. That is why you can't wait until less than a minute left to start fouling to try and make up a 10 point deficit, and you can't sit back and play defense down by 10 with less than 2 minutes. By my scenarios the 2 minutes would result in only 4 offensive opportunities to try and make up, realistically, 5 possessions. So until one of these coaches reads this or comes up with their own plan (and praying to hit miracle 3's is not a plan) I will continue to scream at the TV.

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