Why the Browns will beat the Broncos and 538 knows nothing... [remember to delete this if it goes badly]

So everyone is pretty much dog piling on the Browns right now because they were supposed to go to the super bowl and be great and all that.  Well as a Browns fan / watcher for the last 19 years I can tell you that expectations were to just have a winning record.  You see you have to start there first.  You can't go from 0-16 to the Super Bowl, doesn't work that way.  Sure the hype is great, but those kind of expectations are completely unrealistic.  The Browns intentionally tanked for 3 or 4 seasons.  The other 15 were just an unhappy coincidence.  [Question: if you are trying to be bad and you succeed at it, are you successful for failing intentionally? Answer: I guess so if you have success intentionally afterward].  But there is a process to complete (thanks 76ers) to go from nothing to champion.  I have picked the 76ers as my pick for the championship in the NBA this year, but it has been a 7 year process to get here.  Same with the Browns.  If you say 1-15 was the start we are in year 4 and are trying to win.  So what has gone wrong (besides officiating), well how about a new coach and the schedule.  If you have followed the Browns for any amount of time you know that the schedule never favors them.  Anytime they have a chance to be good, they are playing at odd times with long trips across the country usually followed by a bye at an inconvenient time.  So this year when I looked at the schedule I thought, wow they let the Browns have a bye in the middle of the season, what luck.  But the teams that they played through the first 8 games would include 2 trips out West, only 1 division game (on the road no less), and playing both super bowl teams from last year.   So as game number 8 approaches we are looking at that second trip West to Denver to play in the altitude.  ESPN says Denver has a 60% chance to win and 538 says Denver is at 53%.  I legit think the Browns are a 9 win team, still.  Maybe thought they were an 11 win team at the beginning of the year, but they would have to run the table now, which is possible.  Here is the problem though.  The Browns have the same number of wins, the quality of the wins is about the same, but the difficulty of opponents for the Browns so far has been insane.  They have played 2 undefeated teams, 3 division leaders, five teams with at least 5 wins.  That is crazy in 7 games.  The only garbage team they faced was the Jets without their starting QB and they won by 20.  They also are one of the Titans victories, but the Titans seemed especially fired up in that first game, and that game was close before the screen touchdown at the end of the third, but then Titans have sucked the rest of the season and actually got shut out by the Broncos.  I think the Titans kind of blew their load in the first game so to speak, because they absolutely haven't been able to pull it together.  The Broncos though, have lost to the mighty Bears, Raiders, Jags so far this season, while only managing to eek a second win against a horrible Chargers team.  So why do I think the Browns should win?  Well they are relatively healthy at this point, while the Broncos will be playing their back up QB and their #1 pick from 2 years ago is out on defense, plus they traded away one of their better receivers last week.  But these sites are still picking the Broncos?!?!  I don't get it.  I know the expectations were sky high, but right now the Browns have 3 games at the end of the season against teams that haven't won a game yet.  Would the model be different if the Browns were 5-5?  But you know what.  According the to betting sites the Browns are favored by 3.  Take that for data...
Edit: I didn't delete this, but damn we still lost.  24-19. We did beat the 6 win Bills though the following week.

Day Light Savings Time continues on...

At least for me.  So this year my contempt for standard time has reached new heights and rather than be told what to do by the federal government I have elected to keep living in daylight savings time.  Now I realize this isn't an option for everyone but with my job I don't have a fixed start time and I can come in an hour earlier and leave an hour earlier no problem.  Well if something happens to be going on I can easily get stuck at work for longer, but that could happen anyway.  So far the hardest thing is getting up at 4:30.  I know that this is the exact time I was getting up a week ago, but the psychology of seeing 4:30 does something too you.  I have tried to stay on the same routine for eating as well.  Breakfast is roughly the same time, my morning snack that I used to do after the morning meeting is now before the morning meeting but around the same time, lunch has been pushed back a half hour to 10 AM. After that I eat a snack of an apple, banana, pack of raisins and a zone bar one every hour.  It actually works way better in the evening though as now I can go run when I get home and then eat dinner at 6PM (7 PM in my mind) with the rest of the family.  Honestly I don't know if I can keep this up though.  The hard part is the morning, but once I'm up I feel pretty good.  But laying in bed for another hour would also feel pretty good.  Maybe there is a compromise somewhere, where I could sleep an extra half an hour one day when I'm not running.  I'll have to think about this.  I also need people to look at the weather when they are scheduling things, because if it is nice outside I need to go run, not sit at your meeting.  The cold weather is going to suck though and basketball season is starting, so running could get pushed out of the way a little.  The good news is over the next 2 months I have 10 days of holidays and vacations that should allow me to get some miles in.  The bad news is that I have 10 days off over the next 2 months that could really play havoc with me getting up at 4:30 in the morning for work... As of right now I feel pretty good about making it through Thanksgiving, but no guarantees after that.  I mean wouldn't that make more sense anyway to not change the clocks back until after Thanksgiving?  I don't want it to change at all anymore, to be honest.  When I was younger fall back was always the best, but now I want that extra hour of daylight in the evening, not in the morning.  Being dark at 5 o'clock in the evening sucks.  The blow of springing forward was lessened by the idea that the sun would shine for longer in the evenings and it was getting warmer.  Not sure what I'll do if I'm able to make it that far.  I mean why does everyone have to switch anyway?  If they schools think it isn't safe to have kids wait for the bus in the dark, then just move school back an hour.  "Well that wouldn't be fair to the kids to go to school at 8 AM instead of 7 AM".  Really?  is that even an argument?  Then the rest of us wouldn't have to switch our schedules.  I mean for regular businesses this can't be good right?  If you are a bank, wouldn't you want it lighter so people felt like they had more time to visit the bank, instead of being rushed at the end of the day and maybe not making it.  Or a resturant, or shopping center wouldn't they want it too be lighter later?  All I'm saying is that there will be 10 hours or so of daylight at some point this winter, and I would rather it be daylight when I am awake.  The problem is if you want to watch a show or something the T.V. schedule or sporting contest gladly goes along with the time change, but if they didn't what would it matter?  Oh no the game started at 7 PM instead of 8. Heck that is better anyway, because I would rather watch the end of the game than the beginning, but if the end is going to happen after I go to bed, why do I even want to watch the beginning?  (Looking at you MLB) So this winter is going to be a little bit of an adventure and we'll see how long this last, but honestly this changing of times thing is a little ridiculous. 

2019 XC Crosses the Finish Line at least for us

Well it was a great season, had some ups and downs but recovered nicely the last quarter of the season.  A recap of the season for Sampson -

All Buckeye 8
All-OVAC
All-District
District All-Academic

In addition to these his team won:

Belmont County Championship
OVAC 4A
Buckeye 8
OVCCL
Martins Ferry Invite

He qualified for the regional for the second year in a row along with his team, and this year he did much better.  Last year he got 81st and was a little overwhelmed at the race.  This year he got 52nd and it wasn't his best race, but it was pouring down the rain and we had talked before about the worse the conditions were the better it was for him if he was going to have any chance to make it.  The bad things is I don't think it was better for his team.  He ended up running a 17:35 in 50° weather with the rain pouring at the start of the race.  He actually beat 2 kids that he hadn't beat this year so that was good, and one of the kids it was their first year and I don't think they had ever run in those conditions.  Last year it was about the same, real sloppy course and bad weather, but this year all of the races had been dry and warm and if a kid hadn't run it that before they were in for a rude awaking.  Sophie was like "I hope it stops raining" and I was like "I hope it pours for the next 18 minutes to give him a chance".  Alas there were still enough kids who were prepared and talented enough that they held him off.  I thought he ran a good race given the circumstances and cross country is a funny sport in that it is rare something could come up and change the place you should finish.  You could run an amazing time that is just way above anything you have run, but that is usually because of your training, and maybe tapering and having everything hit just right.  By the time you are a junior in high school this is probably less likely and it isn't like other sports were you can keep the score close and throw a hail Mary at the end or have a stud pitcher that other teams can't hit, or just shoot lights out behind the arc in a basketball game.  No in cross country you can pretty well figure out where your team is going to finish before you go into the race.  I had his team at about 13, well they finished 15, but like I said the conditions were good for him, and maybe one other guy, but the other 3 guys not so much.  It should help them next year to at least be prepared for this, but I know Sampson wants more.  We had the team banquet and as soon as we came home he was trying to figure out what he had to do to get to State.  I told him about 500 miles between May and August.  We'll see.  I just hope he is able to go into the season healthy next year and have a good last season.  I hope all the boys can be healthy.  This year we had a knee injury kind of take out our number 2 guy, plus a kid on the team got bit by a tick over the summer and ended up with Lyme's disease.  So hopefully next summer goes better.  Anyway a link below to the video from coach's husband. 

Predictions for the New NBA Season 2019-20, Cause why not?

So to be fair I haven't watched much pre-season basketball, but I did watch the draft (at least until Bol Bol was picked) and I saw what happened during free agency (lots of crazy stuff).  So with that here are my picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year, and the playoffs in the East and West.

MVP - Giannis Antetokounmpo (repeat, dude is not even in his athletic prime and really hasn't learned to shoot.  Most teams don't have someone who can even stay in front of him)

ROY- RJ Barrett. I just feel like Zion won't play that much this year because the Pelicans are being sooooo cautious, but you got the guy to play basketball and at some point he is going to play, but with the early knee injury I now doubt he plays any back-to-backs and just doesn't get the games in to make an impact.  He may have better averages than RJ, but I think RJ is going to put up better numbers on a worse team.  MPJ would be my second pick, but that team is loaded and I think he is just going to be limited minutes wise to start the season.

Let's start with the East because the team are a little easier to evaluate here.
1. 76ers - Added talent, competition got weaker, should be an easy walk to the conference championship baring injury.
2. Bucks - Lost Brogden, still have a lot left though including the MVP.  They did get exposed by Toronto so they will have to fix that if they are going to the finals.  If they find someone to fill the hole left by Brogden could move to first.
3. Celtics - 2 All-stars leave, one comes back.  Will be interesting to see how Hayward plays without Kyrie and if Brown and Tatum improve.  Also they got some good rookies again.  Ton of talent, but kind of starting over.
4. Nets - They made the playoffs last year, and trade an All-star for an All-star.  If KD comes back at all could be a tough out in the playoffs.
5. Toronto - probably.  Lost a lot, OG is back, but they have a huge target on their back every night.
6. - 8 - All these teams have a wart of some sort so in no particular order
Orlando - If Fultz plays well they get better, if not probably still make the playoffs.
Chicago - They have talent, coaching is the question mark here.
Indiana - Depends on when Victor comes back and if he is healthy.  If he is rushed back and still hurt this team doesn't make the playoffs.
9. Miami - About right for a Butler led team. Maybe they get to 8.
10. Hawks - Still a year away, but should be fun to watch.
11. Pistons - Made a push for the playoffs last year, but older and slower now.  Blake starts out hurt too.
12. Knicks - idk, too many power forwards.  Maybe they can make a trade. RJ probably isn't good enough to get this team to the playoffs by himself...yet.
13. Cavs - If Beilein coaches well they move up, if they play like they did in the preseason they are the worst team in the East.  Why draft another point guard?
14. Wizards - Beal is good, probably gets traded, full tank mode with Wall out.
15. Hornets - Bad, maybe Jordan isn't a good talent evaluator.  I mean he did say Steph isn't a HOFer...

The West is L-O-A-D-E-D, too bad all the games will be on too late to watch :(
Let's do this in Tiers
1-3 - LAC, LAL, Den.  Top 3 teams, maybe in the league.  Any could be number one.  I could see the Lakers falling out of this group if the players don't mesh and Lebron plays less than 70 games or so and his defense is still objectively bad.
4-7 - Blazers, Jazz, Rockets, Warriors - Lots of returning players, but some exciting new players, the team that has the best of the new players will get a home playoff series or the best of their returning players.
8-12- Spurs, Mavs, Thunder, Pelicans, Kings - I would say one of the teams above drops out of the playoffs and the Spurs make it.  After that these teams are likely fighting for one spot.  If Zion doesn't play at least 60 games, that team is done.  The Thunder are a long shot here, but they did get CP3, SGA and Danillo G. So there is some talent.  Mavs it depends on K-Porzi and Luca and if they can stop anyone.  Kings were close last year so if they get better they hold the other teams off and make it in and get swept in the first round, if they get worse this teams likely gets blown up again.
13. Suns - Still not very good, but they have Rubio and Saric now so at least some scoring and what looks like an NBA level starting 5.
14. T-wolves - A team going the wrong direction, in a stacked conference.  Could be last if the chemistry blows up.
15. Memphis - Should be exciting to watch, but Morant and Jackson have a lot to learn.

Impeachment - An exercise in futility for 160 years...

You know who was the last American president to be impeached?  Nixon... no he actually resigned before he could be impeached.  Andrew Johnson... sort of.  Actually it was Bill Clinton.  Now I know what you are thinking, but he didn't get impeached he served 2 full terms.  Yes he did.  But he was impeached by the house of representatives in the late 90's, before having the impeachment process fail in the senate and allowing him to finish his final term.  Actually this is what happened to Johnson as well, as the senate could not reach the 2/3rds vote to get him out.  By one vote.  Regardless, if you look at it through this spectrum then the United States has never impeached a sitting president.  Nixon probably would have been impeached had he tried to stay in office, but obviously didn't think the risk of fighting the impeachment was worth staying as president, especially since he had already endured a year in office after the Watergate scandal.  So why is it a waste of time.  Essentially you have a partisan Congress that wants to oust the president and even when the Senate may be agreeable to an impeachment it is essentially an impossible task.  You see Nixon did something really bad, by spying on the opposition, then lying and trying to use the office of the president to cover it up.  This is really bad and yes it should be an impeachable offense.  So what did Johnson do - he fired one of his cabinet members... that he appointed.  "Don't they do that all the time?"  Yes. But in the 1860's the congress actually passed a law that it was illegal for the president to fire a cabinet member without congressional approval.  That law was later overturned by the Supreme Court, because really it makes no sense.  Clinton, well he lied under oath... about who he had sex with.  Not the most world shattering revelation, and certainly not something that put the country in jeopardy either.  So why did he get impeached?  Because the congress was under rule by the opposition party at the time.  You see the Congress is kind of like the kids that want to be loud and unruly and the senate is kind of like the adults.  The kids get to do whatever they want and if there are enough kids they can impeach the president.  Then it goes to the Senate, where they have to have a hearing.  Mostly no matter how outrageous the kids are the Senate won't let them screw up too badly and make the country look stupid.  Thank goodness.
So the partisan house has started an impeachment inquiry.  Which from what I understand isn't an actual inquiry because it hasn't gone through the courts, but I honestly don't care that much.  The reason is because no matter what they come up with, it won't go through the Senate.  Remember, it isn't enough that people just don't like the president, or that he did something questionable, he literally has to do something that is impeachable.  Did Trump do that?  Well they are saying that he was with holding aid to a foreign country until the country agreed to investigate a potential corrupt power grab by a former U.S. Vice President.  Who happened to be a democrat.  Yeah, that should pass a republican senate... Plus did he actually threaten to withhold the money?  Because it is actually never shown on the phone records (which I'll agree are a little suspect), so to me this is a complete waste of time.  But because the Democrats have painted themselves in a corner by wanting to impeach Trump ever since he got in office, they now have to pretend to be going after him.  And you know who it will hurt if they don't impeach him?  The Democrats.  So it is actually in their best interest to keep the inquiry going as long as possible, because if it ever goes beyond that it will fail miserably.  And the people who have been misinformed or underinformed will look at these democrats and not understand why they couldn't impeach him when it was soooooo black and white.  Honestly they should have let this die, and never even broached the subject of impeachment, because this will ultimately end badly for them.  And you know who will learn the lesson from this?  My guess is no one.  And we will have to repeat the process in about 20 years, when some people who know better come along...

The District Race of Aught '19

Well this race was kind of a combination of the last 2 years.  Sampson did cramp, but it wasn't until the last mile and he was still able to gut out an all-district performance, so this should put him up for all T-L team.  He did get all Buckeye 8, All OVAC, and now All-District.  He was probably the number 2 guy this year because of the hot races.  He actually cramped in a couple of races but it never really caused him a "bad" finish.  The only races he was out of the top 10 was usually the loaded fields, and even if they would have run the large school division at Claymont he would have gotten 10th so that is really good.  The team ended up getting 3rd at the district which is one spot better than they did last year.  I think some of the boys though they could win if everyone ran their best race or at least their top 3 race, but probably only 2 or 3 of the guys did.  Sampson didn't.  One of the boys didn't even get to race because something felt wrong when he was warming up so they had to go to the alternate runner.  He has actually run here the last 2 years, but got caught a little off guard getting shoved into the action at the last minute.  He ran well, 4 seconds faster than last year, but this year he was actually the 6th guy for the team not the 5th.  The bad thing was the guy who finished 2nd for us last year was our 7th guy this year, but he has battled knee issues all year.  So now on to the regional.  Sampson is hoping for a top 50 finish.  This is a reasonable goal.  I would say State is the goal, but this division is very competitive and the whole thing about cross country is - you get what you have prepared for.  This isn't like basketball or baseball where a kid could get hot or you can ride a great arm through to the state championship.  This is all about how many miles you have ran and how many guys have put those miles in.  Sampson has definitely done enough to earn a regional birth, but probably not state.  He has the potential, if he runs his best race and 2 or 3 guys that would have beaten him, either cramp or don't have a great race, but there just isn't a way in like some other sports.  We can't sit here and hope for a fluky bounce of the ball or maybe getting a couple of calls from the official.  Cross country doesn't work that way.  There are no buzzer beaters, or in game adjustments that can sway the contest.  No this is competition in its purest form, the gun sounds and it is about who can push their body the hardest for the next 16 minutes or less.  I say 16 because whoever wins the race will probably be below 16 minutes for 5k.  That is really fast.  No where near as fast as what Eulid Kipchoge did though when he broke the marathon record, but really fast for a high school kid.  When you step to that line all you have is the miles you have run, and the prep you have put into the race.  The girls team also made the Regional, but in a different division.  They may actually get a girl or 2 through to the state if they have a great race.  

Differences in Teams - When a team comes together

So watching sports and coaching teams there are definitely differences between teams.  Sometimes the differences are noticeable in talent or how well prepared a team is, but sometimes a team just has "it".  I have come to the conclusion that there is usually one singular instance that has allowed this team to gel in a way that they are overachievers based on talent or coaching.  One instance comes to mind of the 2017 Michigan Wolverines basketball team.  A good team by all accounts, but nothing overwhelmingly special.  Good talent, a good coach, a team that was certainly capable of going on a run.  But right before the big 10 tournament that year their plane ran off of the run way and almost crashed.  Well actually it did "crash" it just never even got the ground.  Nerve wracking for sure, but an experience that was shared by the team and one that you would think would make a team closer by having such a traumatic shared experience.  Well they went on to win the tournament and make a substantial run in the NCAA tournament to the championship game.  Did I mention they were the 8 seed...in the Big 10 tournament.  Here is Moe Wagner's recount of the story and their run to the sweet 16 (should have waited until the final four). So how does a team that was coming in 8th in a conference make it to the last game of the season?  Could they have figured something out or had a player go on a remarkable run?  Sure.  But I really think there is something under the surface that when a team deals with a substantial amount of adversity it can bring a team together in a way that no amount of practice, coaching, or talent can account for.  I bring this up because Peach's team is on a 4 game win streak after dropping 5 in a row in and the last of those was a total melt down.  So what happened.  Well one of the girls who was on the team, but had to leave because of her mother's health, actually lost her mom and this was the first parent that any of these girls had lost.  It just so happened that several of them were at my house when they found out, and they had a very emotional experience.  Well the girl has come back to the team now, and I think they have kind of rallied around her.  I mean it is only junior high girls volleyball, but maybe that is enough to bring this team together.  I don't know how you would construct an experiment to do something like this, it is just something I have seen.  If you want to run a plane off of a runway in a wind storm, well good luck with that, not sure the benefit would out way the risk.  But that is kind of the trick isn't it if this is a key.  How do you team build in a fashion that everyone is really together as a "team" working together and caring for each other?  I think it has to start outside of what ever the sport is.  You can't have a shared experience in practice.  Every team has practice, this has to be something special and if it is a once in a lifetime (and not necessarily a positive experience either, I think the more that is overcome from adversity the more it means) experience that is not easily replicated I think that would carry the most weight.  But this is all speculation.  I have also seen teams where things have gone wrong and the whole thing has imploded, and people can't wait to go their own way.  But I think it may well be up to the coach to realize what is going on and use that motivation to further the success of the team.  That is what I believe the good coaches are able to do, and what the special teams have in common.  I'm not talking about the Warriors, or Alabama someone you expect to go in and win, I'm talking about the plucky under dog, with the remarkable story.  Something that maybe other people can look at from outside the team and have some empathy with the team, on what they went through.  Maybe that is the key, some cosmic outside energy flow that is directed to a team in a positive manner.  Anyway this is just an observation of mine, but I would be interested to hear other teams where people have seen this happen or have first hand experience.  One other thought if this could happen for a sports team, could be applied to a business or office environment?

61.94 mile month

I know, some people call this a light week, but running is hard for me and this is the most I have ever run in one month.  So back off.  I have been going up on my mileage since April, but I think this is probably the peak for this year.  I'm sure October won't be a complete drop off to nothingness, but it will probably be harder to get the runs in as it is getting dark by 7:30 so I almost have to be done by then.  Basketball will be starting soon so running between games will difficult.  Looking forward to the challenges of running in the winter this year as that is something I haven't really done before.  But I will say if this is the high water mark for the year, I totally plan on breaking it at some point next year as the distance runs have gotten easier, or at least more palatable.  On a side note, the Map my run app has an annual challenge to beat during the year, and the challenge for 2019 was to run 1019 km.  That is 633 miles, or 52.75 miles a month.  If I would have been doing the challenge from the start and averaged what I have the last 2 months, I would be on pace to beat it.  As it stands I am a little under half way and only have 92 days left.  I would need to run 3.62 miles per day to make.  Probably not going to happen.  To beat it the whole year, you need to run 1.73 miles per day. 

To the Brink and Back?... Fall Sports Update

Well we are about half way through the fall sports season and the kids' teams have not performed as expected.  Peach's team is 4-8, and Sampson's team has actually done really well, but the way they are finishing is all over the place.  In the smaller meets they are winning them because they have 7 or 8 guys finish before most teams get 5 across which I though would happen, but the order of the top 4 or 5 has changed every race, which is unusual for cross country.  Normally guys finish in similar order and one or two guys will switch spots every now and then depending on the course, weather, prep, etc., but this team will have one guy finish first, then fourth, then second and the top 4 is just a shuffle and see what happens.  Sampson has been hampered by some breathing issues through about 3 races and cramped up in that first race, but has finished first for the team twice, and finished second overall once.  He hasn't finished outside the top 10 in any race, which is impressive as the last race had about 243 kids...approximately.  Overall they have done well, but still haven't been ranked.  I think if they do well at the next meet they could crack the top 20 team rankings but they need everyone to run well.

As for Peach's team it has been a little rougher.  They started out 3-3 and they were doing the little things to pass the ball and hit it over that they didn't do last year and eventually I thought it would translate to wins, but instead it was a lot of close losses because they weren't really hitting with power or to the open spots.  Also the servers are pretty even talent wise and we don't have one dominate server, but we do have one weak return rotation that always seems to get put up against the other teams best server and that is when we give up the majority of service points to the other team.  Anyway, Peach's team was in the midst of a 5 game skid and during the last 3 games they had kind of fallen apart, especially the last game.  I would say Peach probably played her worst game on the road at the Huskies.  Everything she hit was weak, or hit incorrectly and the coach was laying into her pretty heavy on every point.  Well she ended up getting taken out for a 7th grader and this kind of sent her over the edge mentally and she kind of checked out.  Well she was so far out of it that the coach decided to give her a call and talk to her.  Sophie also had a talk, but that was because one of the girls Mom's had passed over the weekend and she was trying to give her a heads up... for 40 minutes or so....  Anyway I was prepared to throw in the towel thinking the season was lost, I have even given up line judging as I was extremely agitated.  In the past I have seen teams fall completely apart and usually they are just done, and mail it in the rest of the season and you might see one or two kids have some individual success, but you never see the team really put it together to pull out a dub in a tough situation.  Well the game last night may have changed the out look yet again.  We were playing the hated Jets (I mean it is junior high girl volleyball, so hated or rival may be a little overstated) and they had beat us in 3 sets in their house during the 5 game losing streak.  Basically that game was 1 set a piece and it was anyone's game and they made a huge momentum play to get the ball over the net, got the mo, and had a server fire fastballs over the net for 6 straight serves or so and every other time she has served was no more than 2 before she netted it or hit it out, so that was extremely unlucky, at least for us.  So we won the first set in a close manner, and the second set was not going our way (bad rotation first I think), but about midway through the set Peach started playing out of her mind.  She had 4 or 5 kills in a row (which at this level is crazy) and everything that was coming over she was hitting and making passes or hitting it over and she finally got a jump ball at the net.  It was crazy!!!  Her team was totally fired up and they just kept feeding her and she kept making plays.  I was very happy for her, and I think she figured out if she just plays things will go better.  That is the trick for young kids, getting them to actually play, rather than just execute A, B, C or X when Y happens.  Playing to me is just reacting and letting instinct take over and the instincts result is good plays without overthinking.  It is a hard place to get to, and we will see if she was just in the "zone" once or if her playing style is changed as they play again tonight, this time against the evil empire.  So that name may be harsh for junior high, but the school has totally earned that nick name, plus they are Sophie's old rival so she definitely has no issue with that name.  Hopefully we are trending up the rest of the season, time will tell...

The Streets are running yellow with rage!!!

So yesterday I hear from Peach that Sophie got yelled at and honked at on the way to school by the paper delivery guy.  Apparently Sophie didn't have her lights on and this guy thought that was entirely unacceptable and bordered on unsafe.  So he proceeded to tell her that she need to turn her lights on and honked generously at her apparently to reinforce the idea.  Well Sophie tells the whole story over dinner that after she dropped off the kids she saw him again on the way home.  This time he was stopped in the middle of the road and Sophie being the ever kind and gentle soul that she is, decided that "no matter how small the space was between the car and the side of the road she was going to squeeze in".  I didn't say she was patient.  Also on the way through she rolled the windows down and informed him that "It would be nice if people didn't park in the middle of the road."  To which he responded "Were do you want me to park?"  I don't think she replied, but the obvious answer is not in the middle of the road.  Anyway Sophie says she saw the guy later at Kroger, but he apparently didn't recognize her.  Perhaps his vision was blurred with rage during the earlier encounters.  This morning Sophie is looking out the window and she sees him delivering papers to the neighbors... and some urine to the bush in front of his business.  Well the neighbor has some cameras, so Sophie is going to check and see if the cameras got anything. 

Brooks Ghost 12 - A review

So I recently got the Brooks Ghost 12 shoe for running.  I've run about 15 miles in it so far and the shoe is really comfortable.  I would say the shoe is versatile for running on pavement or track or even a little off road.  I wouldn't necessarily use it for a trail run or something like that.  It didn't feel like there was a break-in period for the shoe as it felt ready to run in right out of the box.  So here is the good and the bad.  Some of the details first - the shoe has a 12mm offset or drop from the heel to toe.  It should help lessen fatigue in the legs on long runs.

Good:
 - Comfortable and versatile for different styles of runs
 - Nice amount of padding - use the Brooks DNA foam which feels soft but responsive.
 - Easy to run in - shoe feels very efficient, not necessarily fast but doesn't seem like it wears you out.
 - Good amount of tread - should hold up for a while.
 - No rubbing in the toe box

Bad:
 - The laces are kind of short - wasn't able to lock the laces without skipping a loop.
 - The heel rubbed me when I was wearing short socks - with long socks was not noticable.
 - There is a lot of fabric in the heel area and the upper is a double layer so it may hold water.
 - Heavier shoe - listed as 10.4 ounces - I think this is for a size 9.

Overall I would score the shoe a 8.5 or 9 out of 10.  If you are just starting out, it would be a great shoe as it is very versatile.  I wouldn't recommend it for a race necessarily because it is a little heavy, but would be a great daily trainer.

Cecil and the Sorority?

Well wonders never cease.  You see just as I was getting ready to turn 42 and turn the page on my college life, finally, I was asked to join a sorority.  Well technically not asked to join, just asked to try out or what ever it is they do.  I know what you are thinking...hasn't it been like 20 years since you were in school?  Well 19 actually, well 19 years, and 3 months and 3 days to be exact.  And aren't you a dude?  Well yes, but all I can assume in these new times is that gender identity and age discrimination are no longer apart of the Sorority way of life.  Alas with the kids and wife and job, it just isn't the right time, so I had to decline the offer...for now.  In a few years, who knows.

First 20 mile week

I was able to run 21.2 miles this week, plus walked 3 and went to 2 cross country meets.  So pretty busy week, plus there were 2 volleyball games.  I was pretty psyched for this and even though I didn't really feel like running last night, I knew I only needed 2 more miles to get there, so I ran 3 just to be safe.  I did have to take a vacation to do this.  Not sure I could pull this off with the kids competing in sports and things during a normal week.  It may be a while before I get another one...

Beginner Running Tips

So I have been running for a while and it dawns on my how hard it is to become a runner / jogger and all of the advice out there isn't necessarily geared towards or applicable for someone who is just starting out.  You see I never ran before, not in high school, not in college and not for fun (didn't even think this was possible), and it is really hard to go from the couch to a 5k or even just running to stay in shape.  About the only running I did do was playing basketball in pickup games.  Needless to say I wasn't in great shape to start, in fact I was probably in the worst shape of my life, tipping the scales at over 220 lbs. and just hating the feeling.  So I decided to start running, well mostly walking at first.  I didn't look too much for tips or tricks to start running, but after I got into it I started looking a little harder.  Wouldn't you know it, there are tons of people out there offering advice to start running, but there was one little problem.  Most of these people were far removed from when they first started running, and most of them were runners when they were young.  There is a big difference between starting running at 10-12 years old, and starting in your 30's or 40's.  When you are young you don't have all the mental hurdles, someone tells you to go run 2 or 3 miles you really don't know any better and because young people are usually in better shape or at least able to push themselves to a higher level they don't know they can't do it.  Fast forward about 30 years and if someone tells you to run 2 miles an expletive may come out.  Or at least your brain will will start swearing at your body telling it that you need to stop or else you risk death.  Basically it takes a while to break down all these hurdles if you are starting later.  My favorite piece of advice is that you should run "at conversation pace" to start out. Well if you are out of shape, and you start running there may not be a "conversational pace".  It is basically 0 to struggling to breathe, right out of the gate.  So here begins my tips to go from not being able to run to hopefully running a 10 minute mile without much struggle, and how to get there by by-passing some of the mistakes I made.

Disclaimer: I am not a medical professional, and this is not medical advice.  As always you should seek medical approval or advise or however that gets worded, before beginning any exercise routine.

1) The basics - Get a comfortable pair of shoes that can support the effort you want to put forth.  I wouldn't advise spending $200 on shoes to start, but if you can find a pair of good running shoes, that can maybe double as shoes you would just wear on a day-to-day basis where you can get some good value out of them that is best.  I wouldn't advise getting a ton of running gear to start, because then it could become cost prohibitive, or you fell like you have invested so much into it that you "have to" go do it, and running shouldn't feel that way.  It is literally the cheapest cardio exercise out there if you don't over complicate it.  I mean all you need are your feet and outside.  Some people don't even run in shoes (I wouldn't advise this, I would say you likely have a form issue if running in shoes bothers you or some type of chronic issue that maybe you shouldn't be running anyway).  As running starts to become easier I would highly recommend a device that can give heart rate feed back when you are training (more on that later).

1b) When starting to run, if you want to run for an extended period, slow down.  If you go out and think "I am going to go for it and just take off running", it likely won't go well.  You can do this and try and do it in spurts of 100 meters or 200m to start with, but you will run too fast.  If you run slow, it can feel like you aren't really "running", but if you haven't run before your heart will physically not be able to sustain the effort.  Start from walking and gradually speed up, if it becomes unsustainable slow down.  The more you can run the more it will help.

2) Start on a track.  This way if you are feeling good you can go an extra mile, or if you are hurting or the weather gets bad all the sudden, you are no further than a quarter mile from being done.  (Vin Diesel would be proud).  The only bad thing about running a route out from your house is if you get 2 or 3 miles out and you hurt yourself or cramp badly, you are 2 or 3 miles from getting home.  I would wait until you feel a little better about running, until you are more into it, before venturing out a couple miles from home base.  Vin Diesel may still be proud.  If it is convenient to go in a loop around your house, say a block or so, maybe trying doing laps at home if you don't have a track available.

3) Stay on your feet.  If you run a little and need a break, that is fine, just don't go sit down and take a break.  Walk if you can, so that you stay moving, or stop and stand if you have to.  This is called active recovery.

4) Warm up. At least a little. Sometimes for me this is a mile or so or maybe less, then do some light stretching or some dynamic stretches.

5) Learn the difference between soreness and being hurt.  Sometimes you can run through some soreness, again this will be your brain telling you to stop, not you being physically unable to run.  If there is a shooting pain in some part of your legs or body every time you step, this is more likely an injury.  If you are injured, you may only need rest to feel better, but if you have severely injured yourself you may need medical help.  If you are having pain every time you try and run or if you run and are unable to run for 2 or 3 days, you may have some form issues.  A search on youtube may help you find proper running form techniques, I would suggest filming yourself too, so that you can compare what you are doing versus what is correct.  Fixing the problem could be a bigger challenge, because you are probably running how it feels natural and you are going to have to change.  I have changed the way I run a good bit in the last 3 years and feel much more efficient even if I am not appreciably faster.  I am faster, just not super fast. yet...  I have had shin splints, sore calves, some knee pain, sometimes shoes can cause pain if you are switching between high offset shoes to low offset.  (Offset is the difference between heel height and toe height.  A quick search of your shoe can tell you what the offset is.  Going more than 3 mm down in offset did cause me issue for about 3 weeks until my body adapted to the new shoe.)

6) Ignore too much quick start advice.  Good thing I saved that for last ammirite? There is a lot, and I mean a lot of tips and tricks out there, but like I said before, it has been a long time since these people were starting out and likely they don't remember or haven't even encountered this issues that you are when first starting.  Look at my levels of running post, and try and avoid taking or trying to implement tips from people that are more than 5 levels away.  When you are just starting don't worry about cadence or pace, just stay on your feet and keep moving.

Slightly More Advanced Tips

1) Learn the difference between the aerobic and anaerobic systems.  When you are running long distance you want to try and use the aerobic system, because there is a steady flow of energy.  The anaerobic system is more quick energy and it can get depleted fairly quickly.  You also won't lose a lot of weight if you aren't in the aerobic zone, that is were fat stores are used.  Think marathoners use the aerobic system to convert the fat to energy for most of the race and use the anaerobic system for the kick at the end.  If they were running with the anaerobic system they probably wouldn't be able to get over 10 miles.

2) Monitor your heart rate while running.  Your heart rate will determine what energy system you are using.  The rule of thumb for max heart rate is 220 bpm minus your age.  So for me this is around 180...okay fine it is 179, but this is the max rate I should ever run at.  And I can tell now if I am in that range, I start to breathe really hard, and I can feel the blood racing.  To stay in that aerobic zone you want to be 70-85% of the max rate. For me this is between 125 - 152.  This is where I will be burning fat and can run for an extended period of time.  If I shoot up to 160 or higher that effort will likely be unsustainable. It maybe ok for a 5k, but anything longer I will need to whoa up.  If you heart is racing, you are going too fast, slow down to get your heart to slow down.  Once you build up the aerobic base, you can run longer and get more out of your workouts.  This is why I said get a heart rate monitor.  Usually a smart watch will give you the feedback you need.  Also the max heart rate calculation is just a rule of thumb.  That means it works for most people, but not everyone.  If it doesn't seem like it is working for you, then you may have a much higher or lower max heart rate.  You can get tested (VO2 max test) but it is costly, listen to your body.

3) Use a run tracking app.  It will help you be honest with yourself about your miles and your frequency and intensity.  Plus it makes it easier and more rewarding when you see the increase in pace or distance in your training.  I use the Under Armor Map my run app, but there are tons out there.  Samsung has one that comes on their phone, fit bit has one (but on this one I couldn't get it do the GPS without having my phone), Garmin has surprisingly sophisticated watches for tracking runs, and there is a thing called Strava.  I haven't used this but there are some neat features I have seen other people use.

10 Levels of Running

So I started running about 2 years ago, or 3 years ago, well this is my 3rd year of running so how ever that works out.  Anyway I have noticed that some more experienced runners have much better form, and much better technique and tons of aerobic capacity.  When these people are trying to give advice to new runners some of the stuff doesn't always ring true.  What I have found is if you have never run there are quite a few mental hurdles that you have to get through to be able to run for any distance or amount of time.  People who have run in the past and are maybe getting back into running have a distinct advantage because they don't have to convince their body that what they are doing won't kill them.  When you start running in your late 30's and 40's you have to break through those barriers a little at a time and sometimes the advice from these higher level runners doesn't always translate or are so far from being attainable that people may not stick with it because it doesn't come easy.  So I am going to layout what I think are the 10 levels of running and add that advice given from more than 3 or 4 levels away should be taken with a grain of salt.  Most of the time if an elite level runner is giving advise you need to be level 5 or higher to be able to incorporate what they are saying into your training. 

Level 1 - Novice - just starting out, never ran before, never been coached.
Level 2 - Some running, but probably not more than a mile or so at a time, low aerobic base.
Level 3 - Somewhat serious, maybe 5 to 10 miles a week or 2 or 3 sessions of running
Level 4 - More serious about running, has purchased shoes specifically for running maybe will run a 5k or local race (I went through the first 4 levels in about 3 months)
Level 5 - Somewhat competitive - Targeted training maybe 15-20 miles a week, 3 or 4 sessions, has some goal times set and works on form or target areas (Me now)
Level 6 - Higher mileage - 25+ miles a week, 80-100 miles a month, good bit of gear, tracks workouts with apps.
Level 7 - Low end racer - Will race competitively in 5k, maybe up to half marathon. I would say most high school runners are in this range. Capable of low 20 minute 5k times.
Level 8 - Competitive racer - will challenge for 5k wins in smaller events, maybe a capable half marathoner or even marathoner.  Serious training 40-50 miles per week.
Level 9 - High end racer - Can compete at harder events, BQ (Boston Qualifier) at marathon level, lots of training, lots of miles.
Level 10 - Elite Racer - Best of the best, top 10 at majors, ultra runners.  Crazy talent and crazy miles.

In running you absolutely can't skip steps (no pun intended) and you can't skip levels.  But I think people who are more that 3 or 4 levels away have a hard time relating with some of the challenges people at lower levels face.  I'm not sure that an elite racer really understands the difficulty of the novice runner who is struggling to catch their breath after about 200m of medium effort running.  That is why I am going to try and put down some ideas to help people starting out, because I am much closer to that end than to being an elite runner, and I think I have a better handle on the struggles of early running than an elite ultra marathoner.  I will reference this in the future, but from what I have seen I think this is fairly accurate.  There may be some other levels, but rather than having 14 levels I think most runners can squeeze into one of these categories pretty easy and it keeps the comparisons a little simpler.

Fall Sports - Off to a hot start...

This is more literal than figurative as the first week of school and sports is in the books.  Sampson ran on Tuesday and it was about 91°F outside with the sun blazing so that is where the literal hot start comes from.  Anyway he was able to hold on to second place for about 2 and 1/2 miles and then he cramped up.  You see, this kid is about 170 lbs. and 5'11", which is very big for a high school cross country runner.  I doubt that there will be anyone finish in front of him that is heavier than he is, until we get to maybe regionals or district.  So he went out about 5:24 in the first mile, which is about 16 and half for a 5k, which is smoking for the first race.  Well the second mile was about 6:38 and the third was another 6:40 or so.  He ended up 8th overall which is good, but 5th on his team.  Like I said, his team should be really good, and the boy who finished first was the 8th runner on the team last year, so good on him for really putting the work in.  I could tell Sampson was a little deflated after the performance, but I think he felt good about how the team did.  He was ok the next day, and was able to race on Saturday.  The meet on Saturday went a little better.  He finished 10th out of 138, and finished first on the team this time.  The team got second behind a team that finished second in the state in division 3 last year, so that was good.  This time the kid that finished first for the team on Tuesday finished 3rd, so this year it looks like it is totally up for grabs how guys will finish.  This weeks race is the home race, but there is no home court advantage for Sampson.  So far he didn't run the race as a freshman and finished 4th on the team last year, but was hobbled a little.  This will be his second time running it competitively so hopefully he can finish without an injury.

On the volleyball side, I was hopeful that Peach's team was just going to be world beaters and come out of the gate and just jump on teams, but so far they are 0-2.  They have only won 1 set, but the 4 they have lost have been by like a combined 10 points.  I think they are playing the right way though and just need to be a little more confident when returning the serve.  That seems to be the biggest hole right now.  That and consistent serving.  They seem to be pretty good during the long volleys and setting the ball for each other.  I mean I don't know a lot about the game, but based on last year they are ahead technically of what they were doing, when they were just hitting it back over.  Interestingly the 7th graders are 2-0, but are doing what the girls did last year and just hitting it over.  It will be interesting to see if other teams catch up and can handle those easy balls by the end of the season.  On a side note, I did get to be a line judge for one of the games.  I won't say I was the best line judge ever, especially for someone who has never played competitively, but probably in the top 5 all time for the first game ever judged ;).  See if I can keep that momentum up on Thursday.  At the end of the game it was essentially game point for the other team and I was on their side of the court, and our girl served it and it was going out, but one of the girls on the other team took an ill-advised one-handed stab at the ball and just grazed it, so I made the little hand gesture that the ball was tipped.  I don't think the opposing coach liked it, but it was the right call and the girl that was serving didn't have to end her last game on a serve out of bounds. 

Fall Sports 2019

Odd to be talking about fall sports when it's like 90°F outside, but it is that time of year.  Sampson is heading into his junior year of Cross Country and Peach is playing 8th grade volleyball.  I watched the volleyball team scrimmage one game and they looked much improved from last year.  They did add a couple girls that are pretty good, and a couple of the girls have gotten much better from last year.  Also Peach got her first spike ever in the scrimmage so that was pretty cool.  On XC side Sampson's team should be really good.  They got every scorer from a regional team back and none of the scorers are seniors.  I think at some point they should be ranked in the state this year, if not, it is because they don't have a dominate number 1.  Sampson is trying to fill this role but will have his hands full not only from his team but from some local competition.  Honestly I can see his team getting 8 or 9 guys in before some teams get 5 guys across, and there is the possibility that they can have 3 sub 18 guys early in the season.  I think Sampson's goal is to get to state, be all-OVAC, and all Buckeye 8.  If he could sneak out a win somewhere that would be icing on the cake, but as long as stays healthy and is able to compete I'll be happy.  There are several guys that will be right on his heels for this season, but last year I thought he made some good changes to concentrate on the season.  From icing his legs before races, no cutting out certain foods.  This year he needs to concentrate on the training to have his best races at the end of the season.  The one thing he may be lacking is mileage, but he has probably run more than he ever has so I can't complain.  The coach said he needed to be in the 500 mile range for the summer and I don't think he got close to that, so we'll see.  For perspective, I have run 126 miles since May, and I couldn't even qualify to be on the team, but I'm also not 17.  Like I said I just hope he stays healthy and is able to improve from last year, if he does that he will be in a good spot and if the rest of the guys improve, they could be really good.

For Peach, her team was kind of up and down a little last year and as the season progressed I think other teams got more better (yikes) then they did.  If that makes sense.  Basically they started out better than other teams but they didn't get all of the passing and 3 hitting plays down by the end of the season where some other teams did and they could handle the ball if you just passed it over rather than having a good striker.  Peach says she wants to be the spiker and she has grown a good bit over the last 2 years (still no where near as tall as Dad, but way taller than Mom) so she could fill that role now.  They are also playing on high school nets, no more shorter nets for the jr. high. It will be interesting to see how this season goes as it looks like the summer work has them playing a little more like a team.  It will also be interesting to see how bad Peach can cut herself since she is growing out her nails and she refuses to cut them even though there is absolutely no advantage you can have in volleyball from having long nails, you can only cut your self.  So far she has cut herself twice.  Well here is wishing the kids good luck and good luck to my wallet to get into all of these games.

The Tractor Incident of Aught 19

So Sunday the 28th of July I had a bit of an accident.  Well let's start at the beginning of the day.  First we had church, (well I mean I got up, ate, got dressed and what not).  At church they were doing something different that day, open mic night or day or morning.  Anyway it was a chance to get up and praise God for anything or anything that has happened, and I didn't have a specific story, I mean I could talk about a lot of things, but it was important for me to just get up and say something.  I think when you have that opportunity to witness for God you have to do it.  At some point I will describe my path from college to where I am and how all of the little things kind of worked themselves out, but not right now.  So I said my piece, went and sat down, and Peach was with me and said that it was nice.  Like I said I don't know everything I said, it was just important to go up there.  Did I mention I followed the guy who was formally imprison and found God there, and also had a trachetmy at some point?  If that guy is praising God then I got to get up there!!  So we went out to Mom's after church and we were visiting with Bo and Susie for the kids birthday.  It was getting late, but I decided that I was going to go ahead and mow the grass, so that maybe I could take the next weekend off from mowing.  Well during the course of opening up the yard, I normally take about 4 laps around the house, then go to the outside for 2 or 3 laps.  When I started around the bank I was thinking that I let Sampson open the yard up last week, and there is no way he would get as close as I get, so I tried to get a little closer to the bank, because I figured last week he didn't get as close as I do.  Well he must have. 

Post from April on new Fitness Ap

So I have started using a new health app, the Samsung health.  It actually isn’t new and apparently I have had it for a while and just never really used it.  You see I had the fitbit alta and I really like it but after about a year and 3 months it kind of took a crap and isn’t holding a charge, so I decide to go all in on Samsung and get one of the fit pro’s.  Well Best Buy had one for $150 as an open box and it seemed like a super good deal.   I think I may have to add the 2 year protection though because I can see battery issues coming with this one too.  Anyway the app allows me to input the calories from every food I eat and it keeps track of them.  The best thing is it has some preloaded foods or pulls from a connected data base and it will save any food and nutrient information you put in.  So every time you eat a similar meal you can find it really easy.  So far I have realized that I was eating a lot more calories than I thought…oops. Well this is correctable, but Sophie is gonna be mad because I really want to limit my calorie intake so I can lose some weight.  Yes it is going to take effort, but I am ok with that.  I am *cough* in my forties *cough* so I want to take a little better care of my self.  I started running / walking about 2 years ago when I can and I am picking up my training this year to try and get to 25 minutes in a 5k.  That essentially means I will run the whole race, no walking.  I have been working my way along the local 5k course, gradually building up the distance so hopefully by the end of June I am doing the full course a couple times a week.  Anyway I think if I can lose about 10-15 pounds that will make the racing easier and hopefully help with the weight loss.  Sophie pretty much hates to hear about anything healthy though and has already threatened divorce just 2 days in.  I don’t think she is serious, but just to be safe I’ll try and keep this on the down low.  Hopefully it works and she will want to do it too.  I think that will make things easier if we do it together.  I’ll wait until the anger dies down a little though to introduce these ideas.  Also the Samsung watch comes with the “MapMyRun App” which I hope to try out today.  I like the fitbit app tracking of runs so we will see how this one works.  I also told Peach that if she got straight A’s we could pick out a fitbit at the end of the year.