Why the Browns will beat the Broncos and 538 knows nothing... [remember to delete this if it goes badly]

So everyone is pretty much dog piling on the Browns right now because they were supposed to go to the super bowl and be great and all that.  Well as a Browns fan / watcher for the last 19 years I can tell you that expectations were to just have a winning record.  You see you have to start there first.  You can't go from 0-16 to the Super Bowl, doesn't work that way.  Sure the hype is great, but those kind of expectations are completely unrealistic.  The Browns intentionally tanked for 3 or 4 seasons.  The other 15 were just an unhappy coincidence.  [Question: if you are trying to be bad and you succeed at it, are you successful for failing intentionally? Answer: I guess so if you have success intentionally afterward].  But there is a process to complete (thanks 76ers) to go from nothing to champion.  I have picked the 76ers as my pick for the championship in the NBA this year, but it has been a 7 year process to get here.  Same with the Browns.  If you say 1-15 was the start we are in year 4 and are trying to win.  So what has gone wrong (besides officiating), well how about a new coach and the schedule.  If you have followed the Browns for any amount of time you know that the schedule never favors them.  Anytime they have a chance to be good, they are playing at odd times with long trips across the country usually followed by a bye at an inconvenient time.  So this year when I looked at the schedule I thought, wow they let the Browns have a bye in the middle of the season, what luck.  But the teams that they played through the first 8 games would include 2 trips out West, only 1 division game (on the road no less), and playing both super bowl teams from last year.   So as game number 8 approaches we are looking at that second trip West to Denver to play in the altitude.  ESPN says Denver has a 60% chance to win and 538 says Denver is at 53%.  I legit think the Browns are a 9 win team, still.  Maybe thought they were an 11 win team at the beginning of the year, but they would have to run the table now, which is possible.  Here is the problem though.  The Browns have the same number of wins, the quality of the wins is about the same, but the difficulty of opponents for the Browns so far has been insane.  They have played 2 undefeated teams, 3 division leaders, five teams with at least 5 wins.  That is crazy in 7 games.  The only garbage team they faced was the Jets without their starting QB and they won by 20.  They also are one of the Titans victories, but the Titans seemed especially fired up in that first game, and that game was close before the screen touchdown at the end of the third, but then Titans have sucked the rest of the season and actually got shut out by the Broncos.  I think the Titans kind of blew their load in the first game so to speak, because they absolutely haven't been able to pull it together.  The Broncos though, have lost to the mighty Bears, Raiders, Jags so far this season, while only managing to eek a second win against a horrible Chargers team.  So why do I think the Browns should win?  Well they are relatively healthy at this point, while the Broncos will be playing their back up QB and their #1 pick from 2 years ago is out on defense, plus they traded away one of their better receivers last week.  But these sites are still picking the Broncos?!?!  I don't get it.  I know the expectations were sky high, but right now the Browns have 3 games at the end of the season against teams that haven't won a game yet.  Would the model be different if the Browns were 5-5?  But you know what.  According the to betting sites the Browns are favored by 3.  Take that for data...
Edit: I didn't delete this, but damn we still lost.  24-19. We did beat the 6 win Bills though the following week.

Day Light Savings Time continues on...

At least for me.  So this year my contempt for standard time has reached new heights and rather than be told what to do by the federal government I have elected to keep living in daylight savings time.  Now I realize this isn't an option for everyone but with my job I don't have a fixed start time and I can come in an hour earlier and leave an hour earlier no problem.  Well if something happens to be going on I can easily get stuck at work for longer, but that could happen anyway.  So far the hardest thing is getting up at 4:30.  I know that this is the exact time I was getting up a week ago, but the psychology of seeing 4:30 does something too you.  I have tried to stay on the same routine for eating as well.  Breakfast is roughly the same time, my morning snack that I used to do after the morning meeting is now before the morning meeting but around the same time, lunch has been pushed back a half hour to 10 AM. After that I eat a snack of an apple, banana, pack of raisins and a zone bar one every hour.  It actually works way better in the evening though as now I can go run when I get home and then eat dinner at 6PM (7 PM in my mind) with the rest of the family.  Honestly I don't know if I can keep this up though.  The hard part is the morning, but once I'm up I feel pretty good.  But laying in bed for another hour would also feel pretty good.  Maybe there is a compromise somewhere, where I could sleep an extra half an hour one day when I'm not running.  I'll have to think about this.  I also need people to look at the weather when they are scheduling things, because if it is nice outside I need to go run, not sit at your meeting.  The cold weather is going to suck though and basketball season is starting, so running could get pushed out of the way a little.  The good news is over the next 2 months I have 10 days of holidays and vacations that should allow me to get some miles in.  The bad news is that I have 10 days off over the next 2 months that could really play havoc with me getting up at 4:30 in the morning for work... As of right now I feel pretty good about making it through Thanksgiving, but no guarantees after that.  I mean wouldn't that make more sense anyway to not change the clocks back until after Thanksgiving?  I don't want it to change at all anymore, to be honest.  When I was younger fall back was always the best, but now I want that extra hour of daylight in the evening, not in the morning.  Being dark at 5 o'clock in the evening sucks.  The blow of springing forward was lessened by the idea that the sun would shine for longer in the evenings and it was getting warmer.  Not sure what I'll do if I'm able to make it that far.  I mean why does everyone have to switch anyway?  If they schools think it isn't safe to have kids wait for the bus in the dark, then just move school back an hour.  "Well that wouldn't be fair to the kids to go to school at 8 AM instead of 7 AM".  Really?  is that even an argument?  Then the rest of us wouldn't have to switch our schedules.  I mean for regular businesses this can't be good right?  If you are a bank, wouldn't you want it lighter so people felt like they had more time to visit the bank, instead of being rushed at the end of the day and maybe not making it.  Or a resturant, or shopping center wouldn't they want it too be lighter later?  All I'm saying is that there will be 10 hours or so of daylight at some point this winter, and I would rather it be daylight when I am awake.  The problem is if you want to watch a show or something the T.V. schedule or sporting contest gladly goes along with the time change, but if they didn't what would it matter?  Oh no the game started at 7 PM instead of 8. Heck that is better anyway, because I would rather watch the end of the game than the beginning, but if the end is going to happen after I go to bed, why do I even want to watch the beginning?  (Looking at you MLB) So this winter is going to be a little bit of an adventure and we'll see how long this last, but honestly this changing of times thing is a little ridiculous.