Why the Browns will beat the Broncos and 538 knows nothing... [remember to delete this if it goes badly]

So everyone is pretty much dog piling on the Browns right now because they were supposed to go to the super bowl and be great and all that.  Well as a Browns fan / watcher for the last 19 years I can tell you that expectations were to just have a winning record.  You see you have to start there first.  You can't go from 0-16 to the Super Bowl, doesn't work that way.  Sure the hype is great, but those kind of expectations are completely unrealistic.  The Browns intentionally tanked for 3 or 4 seasons.  The other 15 were just an unhappy coincidence.  [Question: if you are trying to be bad and you succeed at it, are you successful for failing intentionally? Answer: I guess so if you have success intentionally afterward].  But there is a process to complete (thanks 76ers) to go from nothing to champion.  I have picked the 76ers as my pick for the championship in the NBA this year, but it has been a 7 year process to get here.  Same with the Browns.  If you say 1-15 was the start we are in year 4 and are trying to win.  So what has gone wrong (besides officiating), well how about a new coach and the schedule.  If you have followed the Browns for any amount of time you know that the schedule never favors them.  Anytime they have a chance to be good, they are playing at odd times with long trips across the country usually followed by a bye at an inconvenient time.  So this year when I looked at the schedule I thought, wow they let the Browns have a bye in the middle of the season, what luck.  But the teams that they played through the first 8 games would include 2 trips out West, only 1 division game (on the road no less), and playing both super bowl teams from last year.   So as game number 8 approaches we are looking at that second trip West to Denver to play in the altitude.  ESPN says Denver has a 60% chance to win and 538 says Denver is at 53%.  I legit think the Browns are a 9 win team, still.  Maybe thought they were an 11 win team at the beginning of the year, but they would have to run the table now, which is possible.  Here is the problem though.  The Browns have the same number of wins, the quality of the wins is about the same, but the difficulty of opponents for the Browns so far has been insane.  They have played 2 undefeated teams, 3 division leaders, five teams with at least 5 wins.  That is crazy in 7 games.  The only garbage team they faced was the Jets without their starting QB and they won by 20.  They also are one of the Titans victories, but the Titans seemed especially fired up in that first game, and that game was close before the screen touchdown at the end of the third, but then Titans have sucked the rest of the season and actually got shut out by the Broncos.  I think the Titans kind of blew their load in the first game so to speak, because they absolutely haven't been able to pull it together.  The Broncos though, have lost to the mighty Bears, Raiders, Jags so far this season, while only managing to eek a second win against a horrible Chargers team.  So why do I think the Browns should win?  Well they are relatively healthy at this point, while the Broncos will be playing their back up QB and their #1 pick from 2 years ago is out on defense, plus they traded away one of their better receivers last week.  But these sites are still picking the Broncos?!?!  I don't get it.  I know the expectations were sky high, but right now the Browns have 3 games at the end of the season against teams that haven't won a game yet.  Would the model be different if the Browns were 5-5?  But you know what.  According the to betting sites the Browns are favored by 3.  Take that for data...
Edit: I didn't delete this, but damn we still lost.  24-19. We did beat the 6 win Bills though the following week.