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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Getting madder about the "boring" financial crisis

The more I learn about this crisis and the strategy to fix it the madder I get. The Dow has lost about 26% in a little less than a year, in 1987 the Dow drop about 36% in less than 3 months. Different from what happened before, not as drastic and yet there was no drastic bail out before. Do you remember Reagan trying to force through legislation for billions of dollars in the wake of the 1987 crash. Me neither. Of course I wasn't really paying attention at the time I was 10. Anyway I actually agree with the congress right now in not just passing this stuff blindly. I don't know that this is going to send the right message. It is going to be a real high level bail out where at risk mortgages are purchased from institutions in order to improve their liquidity so that they will feel like giving out more credit. Which when you think about it, is that really a good idea? These institutions are the ones that made the bad decisions to give credit to people who couldn't handle it anyway. It is like giving someone matches and watching them burn down their house and then hurrying up and getting them a new house... on me and you. I mean these people need to learn a lesson and if the federal gov't steps in and saves them then what lesson did they learn. They took really high risk mortgages and thought they could make money on it, and if they would have made money do you think they were going to share the money with us tax paying folk? Heck no! That's their money, but since they made extremely poor decisions, now they are going to show huge losses and it is up to us to bail them out. Well not this time. I say bring on the consequences for everyone, because it is going to happen eventually anyway. The next president is probably going to deal with double digit inflation or at least needs to in order to genuinely turn the economy around. This is sink or swim time. Eventually people have to be responsible for themselves and their decisions. It just isn't right that people try to follow the rules and do the right thing and then end up footing the bill for the people that either can't or don't care to be responsible. The problem still goes back to the banks and part of the answer going forward needs to be stopping where people can get a house with only 5% down. Move it back to 20%. The only thing here is if people wanted to put enough effort into it they could put the 5% down at one bank to get a loan for 20% of the house and then take that money and put in down at another bank. So that is why people can't be allowed to take out house loans for more than a total of 80% of the house. There needs to be transparency so that other banks have easy access to credit records so someone can't back door them and if a bank circumvents the rules then they assume the entire liability and the loans can't be insured. With the 20% minimum PMI is eliminated and the AIG problem goes away. And most of the bad loans will go away because it will be more difficult for people who can't handle to get the initial down payment. Hey I know I benefited from it, but there are just way too many stupid people out there that are screwing it up. This is where we need an actual leader to step in and say we'll take a look at a case by case basis, but make $700 billion available seems like a huge mistake to me, or at least drastic overkill.

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